A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
